.KEYWORD ppeditorial0101
.FLYINGHEAD FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
.TITLE I’m sorry, Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that
.DEPT
.SUMMARY As PalmPower kicks off its fourth year, Editor-in-Chief David Gewirtz reflects on why the predictions science fiction writers like Arthur C. Clarke had for the year 2001 failed to pan out. He then offers his own predictions for what the New Year will have in store for the Palm economy.
.AUTHOR David Gewirtz
Well, heck. Y2K is over. Gone. Kaput. Finito. Our greatest computing crisis turned out to be hanging bits of paper from punch card technology left over from the 60s.
So now, let’s move on to 2K1. The year 2001 has some pretty heavy cultural expectations to live up to. Arthur C. Clarke and Stanley Kubrick saw to that back in 1968 with their "ultimate trip," 2001: A Space Odyssey. Man, I gotta tell you, those fellows got this one so wrong, it almost deserves a recount. But their mistakes were understandable, given the culture of the time.
Science fiction’s been around for a very long time, but it hit the mainstream in the 40s and 50s with magazines like Amazing Stories and authors like Isaac Asimov and Arthur C. Clarke. During that time period, scientific advances were driven mostly by "big science," efforts where universities and governments teamed up to create things like atomic bombs. Transportation was undergoing major infrastructure metamorphosis with developments like jet-powered passenger planes, high-speed bullet trains (which debuted in Japan in 1964), and even the national highway system here in the U.S.
But, like we’d see in the Soviet Union in the 1990s, the ability of a government to sustain centralized, monolithic projects eventually collapses under its own weight. While both the United States government and the Soviets were active participants in the space race in the 1960s, social unrest and, most importantly, economic upheaval damaged the support for big science. In the U.S., of course, there was the Vietnam War, which pissed off at least two generations of young adults who were about to come into power. Then there were the so-called "gas shortage" of the 1970s and the aerospace slowdown (and huge layoffs) of the same time period. Many citizens questioned whether we should be sending men to the moon when there were people starving in the streets. And then, of course, there was the Challenger disaster. Individual Americans’ faith in huge, centralized projects was damaged, possibly irrevocably.
But more than one project begun as big science survived and thrived in a commercial environment. Take, for example, the Internet. As nearly everyone knows, the network that was to become the Internet was put in place because the U.S. government wanted a mechanism so robust that communications would continue and route around nodes destroyed by a nuclear blast. Other technologies found their way into commercial use, including microwave technology, semiconductors, robotics, and much more.
It made sense, then, that to the science fiction writers of the 60s, which was when 2001: A Space Odyssey was written, expected advances in technology would be of a big science nature, featuring space planes, moon bases, and so forth. Of course, the 60s was also a hot time for the nascent drug culture (hence the movie’s tag line of "The Ultimate Trip"), and so you on the one hand you get great sci-fi movies like 2001 and on the other hand you get really weird movies like, well, 2001.
What those writers missed, though, were commercial technology advances. Heck, we all know how computing power has exploded in the last 20 years and how cheap it’s become. While the HAL 9000 may not exist (and you can’t believe how glad I am that a computer known mostly for, "I’m sorry, Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that," is only fiction), computing technology vastly more powerful is in widespread use. HAL is interesting chiefly because it was so wrong-headed. Here was a computer supposedly capable of independent thought (and betrayal), yet it was used primarily for navigation and life support, something, literally, a Palm III could do.
In the real world, technology acceptance has moved forward where there was a compelling value proposition. Being able to communicate better, cheaper, and faster is a compelling value proposition for the Internet. Being able to easily carry information around is a compelling value proposition for Palm devices. Being able to play incredibly fast, realistic games is a compelling value proposition for the newest video cards, and being able to see high-quality movies as well as get a ton of fascinating background information is a compelling value proposition for DVD players.
But there’s not much of a compelling value proposition for Pan Am space planes. In fact, there apparently wasn’t much of a value proposition for Pan Am, that pioneering company now vanished into the annals of history.
While it seems somewhat strange to actually be living in the year 2001, we know that our reality is far different from that predicted by the movie of the same name.
Speaking of predictions, what does the real 2001 have in store for us? Here’s where I attempt to go out on a limb with predictions for the next twelve months. I, of course, make no guarantees. In fact, I will disavow any knowledge of my actions for any incorrect predictions. I will, further, claim vision, brilliance, and become incredibly insufferable for any predictions I get right.
.CALLOUT This issue marks the beginning of our fourth year of publication.
.H1 Palm reading
To the relief, I’m sure, of the bulk of our readership, I’m going to limit myself to ten predictions for the Palm economy. They are the following:
.H2 1. Form factor
So far, the Palm device has resisted any pressure to change form factor. Form factor is a term used to describe the basic size and shape of an object. While the Palm device did get somewhat smaller with the introduction of the Palm V and the Palm m100, and slightly larger with the Palm VII, it’s basically the same shirt-pocket sized device envisioned by Jeff Hawkins way back when. While most new devices are sure to fit the same general form factor (and, especially, the 160 by 160 pixel screen), I predict there will be at least one radical departure from this form factor in 2001. I predict we’ll see a manufacturer (and it’ll probably be a Palm licensee, rather than Palm, Inc.) introduce a much smaller device (like a watch-sized item) or a much larger one (perhaps even something more tablet in nature). Alternatively, we can expect a device of just a completely new, unexpected shape (and yes, I am covering all bases with this prediction).
.H2 2. Bluetooth
Bluetooth is the near-area wireless networking technology that’s all the rage (and still not deployed). While I think Bluetooth is interesting, consumers won’t–at least not in 2001. It’ll be too expensive, and the first uses of Bluetooth will be of the "Why the heck did they think that was interesting?" nature.
.H2 3. Price
I predict 2001 will herald the introduction of the first under $100 Palm OS device. Expect such a device to have substantial trade-offs to make the price possible. Certainly, there won’t be a cradle. We can expect this device to use the least expensive materials and possibly be a bit bulkier than the more expensive devices.
.H2 4. Major PC manufacturer
Right now, some of the major PC manufacturers (like HP and Compaq) are shipping Pocket PC devices. Yet others (like Dell and Gateway) are selling Palm devices. But no major PC manufacturer (except for Sony) has built a Palm OS device of its own unique design. (IBM doesn’t count since the WorkPad isn’t a new design.) In 2001, I predict we’ll see Dell, Compaq, HP, or Gateway (or, wild shot, Apple) introduce a Palm device with unique design elements. Side prediction: Pocket PC sales still won’t grow all that much, although it’ll reach a plateau of about 20% of the handheld market.
.H2 5. Multifunction Springboard modules
Handspring has already shown some Springboard modules that do basic voice recording and play MP3s. But in 2001, we’ll start to see some multifunction modules that will do both, as well as support some form of Compact Flash or Smart Media, all in one module. We’ll also see modules that integrate telephony and wireless Web access. Bonus: a few more Springboard modules announced in 1999 and 2000 will actually ship in 2001.
.H2 6. Voice recognition
Viable voice recognition and dictation won’t be available on Palm devices. That’s it. That’s the whole prediction. Get over it. Move on to my next prediction.
.H2 7. Automotive integration (eh, again?)
OK, here we go again. Now, to the Palm OS community, automotive integration may be somewhat new. But we covered this stuff when we had our Windows CE publication. The AutoPC was a great idea that was too darn expensive and implemented with whacked-out tradeoffs. For example, it had a CD player but no way to play tapes, so if you wanted to listen to books on tape, you were out of luck. And the basic entry-level device was over $1,500. Now we’re seeing that Palm and Delphi Automotive Systems have formed a partnership and announced the Communiport Mobile Productivity Center, which will give drivers hands-free access to Palm V series devices and certain Ericsson phones. They’ve also invested in a start-up called MobileAria that plans to develop a new, hands-free mobile Internet service platform for the automobile. Don’t these people ever learn?
It’s not going to work. See, here’s the problem. If you develop a comprehensive, fully functional wireless device, like a souped-up Palm VII, it can be used whether you’re in the car or on the beach. It doesn’t need to be designed just for the car. And if you develop a voice-activated device to dial your phone for you, it’s unnecessary, since cell phones and specialty services can do that now. And if you develop a device that monitors your car, only car-monitoring geeks will care. And if you develop a GPS solution specifically designed to be mounted in a car, it won’t be any better than GPS solutions that are now available for Palm devices. I love gadgets. I wish there was a specially integrated, ultra-cool car device, just so I could buy it. But I predict that there won’t be, coolness will be sadly lacking, and no one will care. Sorry guys.
.H2 8. Craaazy stuff
In 2000, the Palm device really became mainstream. We saw downloadable porn for Palm devices and even some virus threats. I don’t know exactly what form it’ll take in 2001, but I predict we’ll see a few more virus threats (probably one that’s pretty serious) and certainly we’ll see more weird and wacky stuff that can only be called "craaaazy."
.H2 9. Palm in the enterprise
We’ve been covering this in-depth in PalmPower’s Enterprise Edition at http://www.palmpowerenterprise.com. The more I look at it, the more I’m convinced that Palm devices are going to take the enterprise by storm. Stay tuned, you’ll see.
.H2 10. PalmPower search engine
Mrs. Gewirtz didn’t raise a stupid boy. I’m not going to do a set of predictions without knowing, with absolute certainty, that at least one of them will come true.
This issue marks the beginning of our fourth year of publication. I’m pretty amazed and thrilled. We’ve produced some absolutely fantastic content, and with our sister publication, PalmPower Magazine Enterprise Edition, we’re producing more high-quality, unique, Palm-related editorial content than anyone else, anywhere.
With all that content comes responsibility. So, I predict that in the year 2001, we’ll introduce the ability to search all our back issues. Actually, I’d hoped to have that service up and running by this issue, but it’s proven to be quite difficult to get the quality we want (can you say "Linux?"), and so we’re taking our time and doing it right.
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But, and this will prove just how good a pundit I am, I can guarantee that PalmPower will introduce a search engine in 2001. This is my "ringer" prediction, the one I know will come true. It’ll probably be very early in 2001, but I’ve gone out on a limb enough for one editorial, so I won’t get any more specific than that.
Stay tuned and have a great year!
.BEGIN_SIDEBAR
.H1 Product availability and resources
For a scientific and philosophical study of the principles in 2001: A Space Odyssey, visit http://www.2001principle.net.
For more information on Stanley Kubrick, visit http://kubrickfilms.warnerbros.com.
For more information on Arthur C. Clarke, visit http://www.lsi.usp.br/~rbianchi/clarke/.
For more information on Amazing Stories, visit http://www.wizards.com/amazing/Find.asp.
For more information on Isaac Asimov, visit http://www.clark.net/pub/edseiler/WWW/asimov_home_page.html.
For more information on Bluetooth, visit http://www.bluetooth.com.
For more information on Hewlett Packard, visit http://www.hp.com.
For more information on Compaq, visit http://www.compaq.com.
For more information on Dell, visit http://www.dell.com.
For more information on Gateway, visit http://www.gateway.com.
For more information on Sony, visit http://www.sony.com.
For more information on the IBM WorkPad, visit http://www.pc.ibm.com/us/workpad/workpad.html.
For more information on Delphi Automotive Systems, visit http://www.delphiauto.com.
For more information on MobileAria, visit http://www.mobilearia.com.
For more information about Palm computers, visit http://www.palm.com.
.H1 Bulk reprints
Bulk reprints of this article (in quantities of 100 or more) are available for a fee from Reprint Services, a ZATZ business partner. Contact them at reprints@zatz.com or by calling 1-800-217-7874.
.END_SIDEBAR
.BIO
.DISCUSS http://powerboards.zatz.com/cgi-bin/webx?50@@.ee6ee4e
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